This item sketches the apparent emerging oil production picture over the next decade.  The surprise is the expected levels of production out of Iraq.  I would like to believe them except that they arrive rather conveniently to reassure us all that there is no problem with oil supply.  The point is that we are been promised around 12 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

The decline of current production is not predicted at all by anyone.  My own best guess is no guess at all except to say it could be fairly modest which is rather unlikely to massively catastrophic which is also unlikely.  The projected new production is around fifteen percent of current production over the next decade.  Yet all historic major fields are well into decline.

As I have stated in the past present production levels are not sustainable even with what is promised.  We need to be under 50 million barrels fairly soon.  The question is if we will be ahead of the curve or if we will be forced.

I do not know if we risk a present decline of twenty million barrels per day or not over the next decade.  Historical comparables suggest that it is so.

On a more upbeat note, enhanced production using THAI can make up any short fall by the end of the decade by producing deeper heavy oil everywhere.  Burning oil can remain an option for a couple of decades or more yet.  The pricing structure however will drive the development of every likely alternative and this will be a transition period.

The good news is that the transition may continue to be fairly smooth.

Latest Canadian Oilsand Production Growth Forecast and Summarizing Main World Oil Production Growth Sources

FEBRUARY 10, 2010