Energy Market Future

The one certainty that we can have is that the benefits of modern technology will ultimately be available easily and cheaply to each and every human being. At best, a few will cause delay in a rear guard action. The classic example of that is North Korea.

Where the energy will come from is far less certain. Here a USA government report recognizes the inevitable but can only stay focused on fossil fuels. Long time readers know that replacement technologies are been promoted in just about every which way.

I think that fusion energy is far closer than anyone imagines. Some very clever tricks are now been employed because they can actually be modeled and tested. This ability is becoming common place and that means that the best imaginations can advance the technology.

In the meantime, just about any other plausible option has been dusted off and is now been actively pursued and most important, solar technology has dropped into the sweet spot in terms of costing and is now booming.

The real question is ‘will the world use less fossil fuel energy’ and the answer to that is an emphatic yes. First because we really have little choice in the matter as that is been dictated by Mother Nature and secondly because the cost of alternatives is rapidly approaching the cheapness of conventional oil. Most of the cost issues are about scale and that is quickly happening. Wind is a great example of bigger, better and cheaper. While this is happening the cost of a barrel of oil is inexorably inching higher. At some point they will pass each other for good.

May 28, 2009

Will the World Use Less Energy?

The U.S. government doesn't think so, and forecasts oil prices as high as $200 per barrrel
By
Katherine Ling

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=world-use-less-energy-oil-prices&sc=DD_20090528

World
energy consumption is forecast to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030, with almost two-thirds of that coming from developing countries and fossil fuels that continue to dominate energy supply, according to the Energy Information Administration's 2009 outlook report [pdf] released today.

Developing countries are projected to increase demand by 73 percent by 2030 in the outlook's base reference case -- EIA's analysis under current laws and policies -- whereas developed countries will grow by 15 percent, the report says.


Oil prices will return to $110 per barrel in 2015 and go up to $130 per barrel in 2030 in the base reference case, although in the high-price reference case they could reach $200 per barrel, depending on supply, EIA said. In the high-price reference case, potential supply reaches 90 million barrels per day, but in the low-price reference case, supply reaches 120 million barrels per day, according to the outlook. All three projections' prices are significantly higher than in the 2008 outlook.


Liquids -- including
biofuels -- will continue to be the primary energy source in the world's transportation sector unless there are "significant technological advances" and despite several policy changes, EIA said.
Unconventional resources such as oil sands and biofuels will become increasingly competitive, accounting for about 13 percent of the world's liquid supply by 2030, the report said. The United States will particularly see an increase in biofuels, mostly in advanced cellulosic rather than corn-based ethanol, acting Administrator Howard Gruenspecht said at the report's release event in Washington.


World natural gas and
coal consumption will also continue to rise, especially in developing countries, the report says. China is expected to triple its coal-fired generating capacity by 2030, according to the report.


The United States will continue to grow as an important supplier of natural gas, projected to increase to 5.3 trillion cubic feet as unconventional gas plays such as the Marcellus Shale account for more than 50 percent of U.S. production by 2030, EIA said.


EIA predicts "much brighter prospects" for natural gas supply, keeping prices at about $8 per million British thermal units by 2030, compared with the
International Energy Agency's outlook, which predicts $16 per million Btu by 2030, Gruenspecht said. He added that if hydraulic fracturing drilling is constrained -- as has been suggested by some lawmakers -- it could seriously affect the nation's ability to reach the unconventional natural gas. U.S. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson said last week that the agency may look into the environmental impact of the process, which some environmental groups say releases harmful chemicals into drinking water (E&E Daily, May 20)


"I think there is no question that gas growth in the United States in unconventional [plays] is all dependent on
hydraulic fracturing," Gruenspecht said. "If one envisions a world where hydraulic fracturing is off the table, that would really change" the outlook, he said.


While the EIA report finds renewables are the fastest growing source of electricity, "coal and natural gas still fuel nearly two-thirds of the world electric generation in 2030," the report says.


Gruenspecht also noted that while EIA is still analyzing the current
House Energy and Commerce Committee climate bill, the target of cutting 17 percent of carbon dioxide emissions below 2005 levels likely will not significantly alter the EIA's energy outlook.


"One could imagine you could comply with the 2020 proposal of a 17 percent cut just using offsets and not a significant change in use of energy at all," Gruenspecht said. "It doesn't necessarily cause huge changes in projections because a lot of countries are showing a huge energy demand. ... I'm not sure they are as committed to making these changes," he said.

Andrew Glikson: Global warming toward 2 degrees centigrade

According to the IPCC AR4-2007 report [1], a total anthropogenic greenhouse factor of 3.06 Watt/m², equivalent to about +2.3 °C, is masked by a compensating aerosol albedo effect of -1.25 Watt/m² (mainly sulphur from industrial emissions), equivalent to about -0.9 °C (without land clearing albedo gain and ice melt albedo loss) (Table 1). Once the short-lived aerosols dissipate, adding the reflectance loss of melting polar ice (where maximum warming of up to 4 °C occurs), mean global temperatures track toward +2 °C, considered by the European Union to be the maximum permissible level.

From Table 1, subtracting the aerosol masking effect, the magnitude of the 1750-2005 mean forcing at ~3 Watt/m² is approaching 50% of the total last glaciation termination of 6.5 +/-1.5 Watt, not accounting for developments since 2005. This includes the reduction in albedo due to melting of Arctic Sea ice and other parts of the cryosphere. Since the mid-1990s the mean global temperature trend has become increasingly irregular, representing an increase in climate variability with global warming, as reflected by variations in the ENSO cycle and oscillating ice melt and re-freeze cycles.

The solar sunspot cycle effect is at about +/-0.1 °C, an order of magnitude less than greenhouse forcing. Sharp peaks include the 1998 El-Nino peak (near +0.55 °C) and the 2007 La Nina trough (near -0.7 °C) [2]. Mean global temperature continued to rise during 1999-2005 by about 0.2 °C. The effects of this warming on the cryosphere include:

(A) Reduction in the Arctic Sea multi-year ice cover from about 4.2 to 2.5 million km² during 2000-2009 [3].

(B) Increase in Greenland September ice melt area from 350,000 to 550,000 km² during 1997-2007 [4].

(C) Warming of the entire Antarctic continent by 0.6 °C and of west Antarctic by 0.85 °C during 1957-2006 [5], reflected by collapse of west Antarctic ice shelves [6].

Variations in temperature and sea ice cover around Antarctica are effected by the shrinking polar wind vortex and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone layer conditions, resulting in geographic and temporal variability in sea and land ice cover (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice_south.php?src=eoa-ann).

Ongoing global warming may lead to the release of methane from permafrost, collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline current, high-energy weather events, and yet little-specified shifts in atmospheric states (tipping points) [7].

Table 1. Comparisons between anthropocene (1750-2005), last glacial termination (20-11.7 kyr) and Pliocene (~3 Ma) CO2 levels, climate forcings, mean global temperatures, and sea levels. Sources: [1, 19].

PeriodCO2 ppm
Forcings (
Watt/m²)
Temperature oC (1 oC ~ ¾ W/m2)Sea level
(m)
1750-2005260-387Greenhouse: +3.06
Albedo: -1.25*

Current balance: +1.81
Ice albedo loss (? W/m2)
~ +2.3 ~-0.9?T oCTracking toward Pliocene levels
Last glacial termination (20-11.7 kyr)180-280Greenhouse gases: +3.0 +/-0.5
Ice sheets and vegetation albedo loss: +3.5 +/-1.0.
~ +5.0 +/-1.0+120
Pliocene (3 Ma)400 +2 to 3+25 +/-12

*Not including land clearing.

This experiment by Homo "sapiens" is a novel one. Developments may include periods of cooling, as may be indicated by the current slow-down of Greenland glaciers. In a recent paper by Dakos et al. (2008), abrupt climate changes in the past are shown to have been preceded by quiet periods [8].

"Skeptics" use such short-term variability, for example slowing down of Greenland glaciers, to argue "global cooling" -- and thereby a "justification" -- for further carbon emissions [9-11].

The implication s of climate change for ecosystems are illustrated in the new book Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming" by Anthony Barnosky, of Yale University, who states: "I think probably the biggest cause for worry is we really are seeing the disappearance of whole ecological niches, which means extinctions" [12].

Despite intensified warnings from the Copenhagen climate conference [13], as a self-fulfilling prophecy the "great moral issue of our time" [14] is being relegated to secondary priority [15].

Given that warnings by scientists have proven mostly correct, as contrasted with watered-down reports percolating upward through bureaucracies, there is little evidence the authorities are listening to the recent dire warnings by climate scientists [16].

The decline by CSIRO to report directly to the recent Senate climate inquiry [17], reminiscent of the Howard era [18], has only been saved by the courage of individual scientists, one of whom compared current targets to 'Russian roulette with the climate system with most of the chambers loaded'.

[1] http://www.ipcc.ch/ ; SPM.2.

[2] http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif

[3] http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic_thinice.html

[4] http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/

[5] http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20090121/

[6] http://nsidc.org/news/press/20080325_Wilkins.html

[7] http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/02/timothy-m-lenton-et-al-pnas-105-6.html ; http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people/tim-lenton/tipping-points/.

[8] http://www.indiana.edu/~halllab/L577/Topic3/Dakosetal_2008_PNAS.pdf

[9] http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/01/23/glacier-slowdown-in-greenland-how-inconvenient/

[10] http://www.connorcourt.com/catalog1/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=7&products_id=103 ; http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/05/ian_enting_is_checking_plimers.php http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/04/23/ian-plimer-heaven-and-earth/ ; http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25433059-5003900,00.htmlhttp://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/05/plimer-wants-to-talk-science-ok-here-goes/

[11] http://australianconservative.com/main-site/category/policy/environment/page/2/

[12] http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2154

[13] http://climatecongress.ku.dk/newsroom/congress_key_messages/

[14] http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25037352-7583,00.html?from=public_rss

[15] http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/24/doolittle-and-delay/

[16] http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=139318 http://wotnews.com.au/like/7_australian_climate_scientists_forecast_an_end_to_coal/3359286/.

[17] http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2543405.htm

[18] http://www.safecom.org.au/csiro-silence.htm

[19] http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_etal.html

Link to article: http://www.opednews.com/articles/GLOBE-WARMING-TOWARD-TWO-D-by-Andrew-Glikson-090531-738.html

Blog posts from May 2009

Blog posts from May 2009:

New Solar Cycle Prediction

This is some neat thoughts on our missing cycle 24. It is not actually missing so much as not arousing itself from a lengthening slumber. We sadly know so little about the apparent period of missing sunspots that we really lack a control for low activity periods which this could well be. Of course we will be experts in a thousand years.

The point is that the theoretical models that are likely worth little to begin with are been tweaked to adjust for the present data. A truck load of fudge has just arrived and no one has a clue what this means if anything at all.

If this carries on much longer, we can count on the press getting excited, probably just in time for the lights to go on.

New Solar Cycle Prediction

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/noaaprediction/prediction_strip2.jpg


Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Peggy Korth on Celluose and Cattails

Some excellent commentary on the conversion of cellulose into glucose and thence onto ethanol.. I have not been overly optimistic on cellulose conversion, but recent work is progressing well enough to make one somewhat more positive.

Without question, every agricultural process produces a large amount of waste cellulose. Cheaply converting this into a viable feedstock for at least the production of ethanol must be a priority. If the farm gate price were only sufficient to cover the cost of the labor then the whole industry would be radically changed. input.

I have no doubt that cattail culture will emerge as a mainstay of the agro business world. Peggy’s work is going a long way toward making it practical and showing us how to construct production paddies.

I have also mentioned before that this is a natural crop for the boreal forest. It is also a likely fodder crop for cattle. Thus we have a viable agricultural protocol for the millions of acres of northern wetlands.

Some comment is also made regarding mosquitoes. In the boreal forest, the trick is to do spring fieldwork early and harvest after the first frost. Else where, it becomes appropriate to produce bat sheds at strategic locations around the fields and harvest the guano. Of course you keep up a water flow and encourage natural enemies, but after that you need airborne eating machines and little surpasses the bat.

Cattail Histhings
May 2009


Water Assurance Technology Energy Resources
40 Sun Valley Dr., Spring Branch TX 78070
FAX (830) 885-4827; Cell: (512) 757-4499
Email:
rpk@gvtc.com


Cellulosic processing Question/ Answer from JC: Cattail Histhings often repeats excerpts from correspondence to build our newsletters. Thank you everyone for your input. Messages may be edited so that the intent helps others understand a lesson. “Many people are just like you--they want to know what to do and where to go for help”.



PK Explains: Any natural fiber can be used in cellulosic processing. The scraps from cotton milling may be cheaper and easier to break down. The ratio of lignin to higher potential starch construction within the cells impact cellulosic processing (and pulping when processing paper). Cellulosic processing is not difficult. It is simply expensive.



With enough acid, you can turn most any biomass into glucose. Depending on the lignin content, you will have varying degrees of success. At this time, cellulosic processing is not a part of our cattail conversion interests. Having lost a small fortune backing cellulosic processing technology and understanding the next generation of GMO’s confirms skepticism. At this time STS advisors and consultants serve community projects and farms. We are not currently addressing industrial markets. Cellulosic processing may become cost-effective when oil reaches $200 a barrel. Enzymes are an alternative to the expensive use of acids. Each feedstock requires a different mix. Cattail projects use natural sugars and starches.



An African Contact, SK, Discusses Facility Design and Cost: The context I'm focused on now is the Lake Chad basin, where there are somewhere above 25000 sq Km of cattails desiccating a continent. This is Typha Australis, with a much larger rhizome (perhaps for longer droughts) and hopefully larger yields. I see both large company and village scale use, both for ethanol and for biogas & charcoal.



PK Comments: Work-force costs will influence distillery design. The expense of automation may not be as important in an economy that wishes to employ a greater number of low-wage workforces. Strategically placing production units close to resources saves time and money.



Cattail as Food: SK states… I'm hoping that its food production capacity will also be exploited. Just clearing it will make irrigation work more effectively, and greatly reduce their flooding problems. Keeping the lake and its tributaries clear is what I hope to make profitable through ethanol. Right now, there are clearance efforts in several Nigerian states. As far as I can tell, none of the biomass is being collected and used, so the never-ending nature of its clearance will eventually bankrupt them.


PK Applauds: Yes, yes, yes! The food aspect needs to be re-discovered. It is the harvesting that makes it so very difficult to use natural stands of cattails. Cutting the stalks below water level is the best way to ‘clear’ an area. It may take several cuttings to control/ obliterate a stand.


My unique methodology for growing and harvesting cattails changes the dynamics of using the crop for food, fuel, and fiber/ pulp. Perhaps I will even be recognized for this some day. Since I am not (nor have I previously) made money for my fourteen years of effort, then perhaps, I should be awarded a world peace recognition. Please read the past copies of the newsletters. They are full of practical information to jump start the new enthusiasts.


Beyond Wastewater Remediation to Desiccation: SK Continues… Similar problems are occurring in India, and probably China. Recent contacts in Punjab and Kashmir confirm the role of Typha in their desertification process. My beloved cattails are a desiccation machine.


PK Comments: There are many botanicals filters that remove chemicals or break complex chemical chains. Cattails are one of those miracle workers as are certain mushrooms (fungi). Our work with healthy forests and watershed restoration includes chemical reduction.


RK Likes our Field Pictures: Thank you - that is a good looking field. I believe that one place this will work very well is in the boreal forest. That begs the next question. Have you caught wind of any Russian efforts from past years? This is just the sort of thing they would have been doing and it would be worthwhile to read any of their literature. Regards, Bob


Comment: Please share your stories and knowledge of cattail application. What is happening in Russia?


Rob Asks: I would like to hear from someone who is already producing ethanol from cattails. My question is, how do you control the mosquitoes? I mean, won't acres of stagnant water attract droves of the little disease-ridden pests?

PK Replies: With or without cattail there are pesky insects; A balance with flowing water helps.


The Eternal Student: Cattails are a weed that can grow in many different environs. The study done by my mentor as a DOE ethanol project is given in the book Cattails to Ethanol. During the past season I have been analyzing a cattail environmental literary review at the University of Texas Coastal Studies Labs on various cattail issues including salinity selecting from thousands of academic papers. To access studies, most state-owned university libraries allow citizens to use their reference resources as well as hiring an IT person to assist in search and operating the systems. The lab manager recommended Google Scholar as another good resource. Most studies are from three to thirty pages long. I filled several notebooks and thumb drives with information to site in grant writing and funding documentation.


There are many misconceptions about cattails. Cattails grow best in a swale or gently moving small flow. They are highly invasive and support their entire life cycle/ food chain in a natural habitat. We plant ours as a farm crop and recommend using wastewater from a municipal flow or animal feed lot if possible or diverting a contaminated waterway (possible mining small flow) through beds that are designed to make harvesting easier. Fish and amphibians eat mosquitoes.


I do my best to answer questions. However, it would be better to find references through your academic resources. Recently I found thousands of references from the pier reviewed journals in university library Internet reference guides and saved dozens as academic references. Extremely detailed information can be found in Typha (cattail) studies done over the past thirty plus years. Although some funding sources expect recent references, older ones may offer in-depth analysis. Some of the newer ones simply quote the older study.

Proposal on control and exploitation of aquatic weeds by VS, Project Scientist, State Council for Science & Technology in India… This inquiry is with reference to an article on
http://www.ethanolproducer.com regarding the subject cited above. VS states…You had mentioned production of ethanol from Typha (cattail). This is mentioned that we are having two species of Typha (Typha angustifolia and Typha elephantine) in huge amounts in our Punjab wetlands. I hadvecertain queries:

1. Is the extraction of ethanol possible from the species I had mentioned earlier (available here).


Ethanol can be made from any sugar or starch.


Answer: Yes, the four species of cattails tested in the pilot project all have significant ethanol production potential. However, it sometimes takes a plant several generations to acclimate when moved to a different climate zone. Some species acclimate by the second season.
2. Is this weed a threat to biodiversity (as it inhibits growth of other plantations).


Answer: One of our wetlands experts does not include cattails in their riparian habitats because it can be difficult to control. Because we intend to plant the cattail as a farm crop in flooded fields and harvested with standardized farming equipment, we are not planting marsh land in which the plant would overtake other species. Blown seeds can take hold in most any wet soil.


3. Is it advisable to root out all the Typha available in our wetlands despite that birds use this as a hiding and roosting place.


Answer: You could never root out all the plant. Re-growth will come from an eyed rhizome, a basic unit of vegetative reproduction and blown seeds. However, you could significantly decrease habitat and that may not be wise. Clearing a path in alternating rows every other year should allow wildlife cover and re-growth if you have equipment to harvest the roots in the natural habitat. Uneven stands of plants have greatest biological diversity
4. What kind of machinery is required for ethanol extraction?


Answer: I would recommend a grinder for the rhizomes and a specialized juicing press for the stems. What equipment is available for YOUR scale of production at this time?

5. Do we need some special training for extraction of ethanol from Typha.


Answer: Most likely not if you are already familiar with distilling. You may need special equipment to harvest the rhizomes and pre-process the biomass prior to making your mash. We intend to convert existing technology from the sugar cane industry for the juicing and heavy duty grinding for the rhizomes possibly similar to sugar beet pulping.
Thank you TS for Checking In with Our Cattail Histhing Group. Dug up some rhizomes and found they have a fibrous shell around the starch. I made a couple attempts at processing them for a mash, but the stringy stuff clogs the system. It’s rudimentary right now, and the disposal (an improvised garbage disposal set up for grinding) worked good for potatoes and small chunks of rhizomes, larger chunks were a problem. It was super fun digging them up, really enjoyable on my knees, I need a better way. I have better ways and other options, just need to get to them.PK and the rest of us thank you and look forward to your ideas.


JM and Others Get ready to Produce Ethanol: I'm looking for 6-10 gallons per hour. What part of the cattail does your machinery take?



Answer: A distillery can easily process the beer from a mash at 6-10 g/h. For most of our people mashing the cattail rhizomes is a toughest job. If you are using mature rhizomes, they are very tough and require stages of shedding or grinding. This summer we will be experimenting with new-growth rhizomes anticipating a much easier mashing process. We will most likely first break the rhizomes in a mulching machine. The small mulching machines sold for home mulching are not strong enough for tough old rhizomes--or so I'm told. One of our team members ran a saw mill for many years. I look forward to his practical suggestions. A tub grinder would be great for larger loads. Cutting the rhizomes into small chunks should allow a person to use commercial kitchen equipment.



Concerning the stalks, the only juicing process that I anticipate finding excellent results is thorough my associates that invented the system for pulping sugar cane. They are setting up three systems for the State of California this summer to run various feedstocks. We will send them a few cattail totes when they are set up so we do not have to cross the border into Canada with questionable biomass. I previously reported on the great pulping results from ratting cattails--a primitive way to process paper pulp. Our associate’s method will render a better pulp AND appropriately "juice" the stalks. And then I will report on the sugars in the stalks. We know they are abundant, but bind to the pulped cellulose through primitive juicing methods.



AirCore Progress: The AirCore small scale distillery series are intended to be scaled to meet the needs of the producer: On a small scale that can be multi staged anywhere between 2 and 24 L/h as can the larger units be scaled and operated in tandem. A single 25 g/h unit can be multi-set to produce in multiples of 25 g/h up to 500 g/h very economically, without expensive buildings or real estate. No matter the scale, if it is approached with common sense the cost savings are practical and purposeful. Various feedstocks can be processed.

Depending on the feedstock, availability, pilot project testing, etc. the units may be set up in tandem to produce optimum output and may be operated separately when small volumes are present. With a continuous feed system, you can run various feedstocks in different fermentation batches and COMBINE beer in the distillation process. One of the best parts of the modular concept; no matter the number of units, no matter the front end process, and the feedstocks, the different stages of production can be interchanged and the final product remains the same. Do you need engineering assistance? We look forward to your reply


CD in Canada Understands Sustainability: I just saw an article on the web about a proposal you made about working on cattails for ethanol production. I am very interested in this subject too, but I am having trouble finding good information on work that has already been done in this area. Would you happen to have a list of references or old proposals that could lead me to other information on the subject? I live on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, and even though I think there may be a good market here for ethanol as a transportation fuel, we don't have any producers within an economical shipping distance. If technology for ethanol production from things like cattails can be made economical, I would like to know more.


Survival Foods—Cattail Shoots and Bamboo: The following article may be of interest. However, the cattail rhizome does not require complicated processing as needed in cellulosically processing bamboo shoots. A reader Responds: I think we will be seeing many more suggestions such as this as per the recommendation of David Blume in his brix analysis of various natural vegetation. Bamboo shoots are a food and therefore have nutritive value as a natural sugar or starch. Any vegetation that supplies nutrients i.e. glucose will also be an energy producer


New method of producing bioethanol from bamboo developed in Shizuoka HAMAMATSU, Shizuoka -- A research team at Shizuoka University has succeeded in developing a new technology to efficiently produce bioethanol from bamboo.


The woody grass grows faster than trees, and doesn't cut into food sources like sugar cane or corn, making bamboo an attractive alternative for producing the fuel.


The team, led by biochemical engineering professor Kiyohiko Nakasaki, has developed a method of rendering bamboo into an ultra-fine powder; which, at 50 micrometers, is 10 times finer than that produced by previous methods.


To produce ethanol from bamboo, its plant cell's major fiber component, cellulose, needs to be broken down into glucose, a simple sugar, before fermentation. However, cellulose is hard to break down, and previous efficiency rates only reached 2 percent. With the new method, cellulose can be converted into glucose at an efficiency of 75 percent. The team is aiming to raise that figure to 80 percent.



The method is a combination of various techniques, including removing lignin -- the second-largest component of plant cells -- using lasers, and a more efficient biodegrading process. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and others hopes to boost annual bioethanol consumption to 2.2 million kiloliters by 2030. Japan currently depends on imported bioethanol. Nakasaki's research team estimates that there is about 93 million tons of bamboo in Japan. According to the team, cutting bamboo at a rate of 3.3 million tons or less per year will not harm the ecosystem, and will produce enough bioethanol to cover about 10 percent of the ministry's target figure.


Grow it UP/ Talk it UP--What is holding back any new feedstock? The government primarily supports cellulosic ethanol. And previously due to the efforts of BBI and the RFA the government spent excessive money supporting corn. Why? Perhaps it is because fuel and farm industry leaders are lobbying for what suits the 'big boys' needs more than the needs of the farmer or the public and assuming that bigger is better. Dominance by focus groups that want to industrialize and control energy markets is one thing holding all of us back. However, they did succeed in expanding fuel ethanol markets and availability. Also, not enough farmers are willing to take a chance. The industrial application cost of equipment and the lack of cost effective small and mid-sized processing equipment availability will soon be solved. New designs and systems are now being marketed. Sustainable Technology Systems intends to join the marketing offering systems at about 33% less than competitors.


How Sweet It Is: AC writes--Thanks for forwarding information on sweet sorghum. I have a login to their web site, but am not an official member, so am not getting the presentations. The information is very good. It appears that most everything could soon be in place to add sorghum as an energy crop. What do you think is holding up the actualization of this technology?

PK Suggests: Without subsidies the margin-of-profit is not quite high enough for investor funding of large projects. Co-product support can tip the scales in behalf of production. Hopefully we will witness a new influx of small and mid-sized production facilities and a new paradigm in pulp and fiber application. Unfortunately, we need new innovation in the pulp and paper industries to support small-scale production of products as well. Industrialization is good up to a point—and then we need to scale systems back down to cottage industries. (My opinion)


Ideas for Starter Beds and Proof-of-Concept: Seeding a saturated growing beds can be effective. Try building an elevated growing bed with about twelve inches of soil--only half of which needs to be above ground if it makes it easier. Control the moisture with a breathable plastic cover (remay). Transplant the shoots in a hospitable spring-time area. Cattails like a slight flow of nutrient rich water once they sprout.


Below Grade: To facilitate easy flow through, we will lower our beds below grade and simply cut off the water supply to harvest the rhizomes.


Roots, Rhizomes, and Seeds: Our propagation specialist uses a sterilization technique to assure crop success when planting seeds. In our summer project we intend to experiment with seeds, cut up rhizomes, and various nutrients including cattail mulch. Please know that what works in one region may differ in another. Please share your trials.



TS Says Thanks for the Info: I agree entirely with a free transfer of ideas and information. The focus on getting wealthy needs to be tempered with an eye towards survival, and not just making the world into haves and have-nots. I’m not saying that everyone gets everything for free; people need to earn some things in life through sweat and mental exercise. If a person works at it he should be allowed to succeed, not like crabs in a bucket where the others will pull the one climbing out back in, but not a handout either. It’s got to be both ways, and improving for everyone you improve things for yourself.
PK: Great comment… Thanks


AH Looks to Technology: Thanks for information! The same day (25.02.2009) Novozyme A/S released news that they have cost effective enzyme complex for biomass hydrolyze which will be available commercially 2010. Let’s wait and see. If you have any "backdoor" to this new product I would be interested.
PK Encourages Novelty: Yes, this is the same presentation that was given at the RFA annual conference I attended in San Antonio TX. Please contact me to share your potential for receiving the product through your local approved channels. The company is most interested in novel applications. Wheat straw is being both tested and applied in a number of locations. Do you have another steady supply of a feasibly good biomass? However, natural yeasts can do a great job on starch–rich and sugary feedstock without the expense of cellulosic processing.


As I mentioned previously, the American Cultures catalog represents about three dozen cultures tested to produce significant cellulase. As stated by the Novozome people, combinations of cultures can produce various effects. Also, the sources of the cellulase producing microbes are quite common.


A good lab tech can isolate a strong culture and come up with a new variety of enzymes right in your neighborhood. Readg Lynn Margulis’s work on Five Phyla. There are an infinite number of microbes and combinations of microbes. The labs that pay big bucks to researchers do not need to be the only players. Their organization allows them to play political games and garner government funds. However, people like you and me can also come up with workable systems and they do not need to be genetically modified. Hazards are not limited to GMO’s either. It is wise to have enough background to be cautious and apply good technique.


AH Understands Economics: When you buy enzymes you are buying activity units and not the weight (powder) or volume (liquid). It means that enzyme with activity 1 mln/g at price 10 USD/kg is cheaper than same enzyme with activity 0,5 mln at price 7 USD/kg. The raw material I am working with is local wheat straw. The pretreatment is lime pretreatment because lime is cheap chemical and easily recoverable by blowing fermentation byproduct CO2 through limewater. The very important step we have found is biomass "wash" after pretreatment. It greatly improves following enzymatic hydrolyze and brings down acid quantity for alkaline neutralization.

PK Discusses RFA Presentations: The Genecore people stressed this alkaline neutralization and it was also mentioned by the Novosomes people. The new 1500 series is more tolerant to pH swings. Different feedstocks respond to pH differently as well. And so you create a biological soup that is unique for each feedstock and each enzyme producing microbe or combination thereof. A voracious person carefully guards his formulae and intends to become a billionaire—or is that careful people greedily guard their findings depending on investments, investors, time and wit. (Inventors want to skip the millionaire stage now days.) Open source is good, yet the investigator also has to make a living. Propagation of pure strains requires good lab technique with appropriate back-up cultures AND the ability to create the same results consistently. My mentor required FIVE consistent tests to approve a technique. Three times repeated is also acceptable in proposal writing.


Even when training people to build cultures ‘in house’ a natural decline in potency is not unusual. Back when I was working with building a business model for production facilities, the primary concern was in keeping the cultures both clean and secure. A number of pirates came to visit and offered money pending our going to their property and setting up a demonstration in their lab. Ha!


What I see happening with the two lead cellulosic processing companies is that they do not have the staff or money or time to go through a multitude of test regimes. Because they want to branch out, they are willing to enter into contracts with qualified investigators to forward their basic foundation. Now, I do not know what will happen if you (me) the investigator take the product to a new plateau. But I can guess.


If you really want to set up a test regime and have appropriate facilities, let’s talk. If you read the archives, I have given enough information in the past to pique the imagination for personal investigation. And I believe that a number of readers have begun their independent studies. However, no one has shared back with me or the forum. This is human nature. And the ego will say, “I am the creator,” even if someone else sent the recipe and the culture.


Cellulase is a very common enzyme. I read cellular biology texts; industrial microbiology texts, biochemistry works, and anything that I think will trigger an idea or inspiration. And I share my inspirations with our team—you have to trust someone. Most of the people within our circle of trust weathered the storm from the previous fall-out. Yet, time and money are tight for everyone, and so we move very slowly. First I recommend that in inquirer studies a glossary of terms--definitions beyond the first line. Then seek to apply that definition to another process. Ah ha! Ahhhhhha, Ha, Ha…We got it!


It is important to keep the channels open even when sharing back in an open source relationship. Like Gilles said, he needs to patent the simple AirCore process not because he intends to keep it under his control, but so that someone else does not attempt to control his technology. His advanced systems will be marketed by STS.

AH Asks: If somebody knows other commercial high activity enzyme producers please share your knowledge.


PK Replies: Sprouted seed has very potent enzymes—especially when applied to the same biomass from which it originates. Genius is said to be 10% inspiration and 90% perspiration. Thanks to everyone for experimenting and sharing. You do not need to distill to do bench testing of a mash. Please consider bench-testing a couple of nights a month instead of watching TV or going shopping or whatever time-consuming activity cuts into your creativity. Understanding the work space of great minds lets us know that it is not necessary to have an expensive set-up to investigate a process. Good technique, however, is necessary. Be careful and HAVE FUN!


Highlights from Terra Preta: Magic Soil of the Lost Amazon: STS propagation specialist, Dr. Haard is a member of a BioChar study group. This group includes a number of academic researchers that intend to build productive soil as is found in previously occupied areas of South America. February 2007 Acres USA published Terra Preta: Magic Soil of the Lost Amazon by Allan Balliett that gives a historical overview of a very advanced culture that did not survive the colonial period of Europeans. Hopefully many of you will find this article and apply the techniques to your growing beds when you choose to build new soil. Ben Bof teaches this ancient technology in Brazil. Additional information may be found by a search for BioChar.


My next challenge is to promote saturated soil. The addition of charcoal will help. We also seek to learn more about gasification of invasive species of woody biomass. However, using this same wood as a charcoal additive could be an alternative technique. There is always room for more than one application of a resource.

Making Charcoal: My rancher friend and I would rather sit and watch a sunset and chat about ranch life than watch television. Last month, we relived her childhood memories of the local charcoal maker. Back when cedar choppers axed the post for cattle ranchers, real sustainability was practiced in our hill country area of Texas. One family of Mexican heritage supplied the charcoal for the trade area. Abuelo’s charcoal was preferred because it was consistent in texture with large pieces and easy handling. Although she was only a young girl when she visited the charcoal ranch, my friend recalls the following:


Mr. Avila stacked the wood sequential teepee shapes, one on top of the other until he created a structure about three or four layers thick. Then he carefully patted a clay/ mud over the stacked wood and lit the fire through a small opening on the bottom. Charcoal making requires a high heat without a flame.


Sooo… what does this have to do with anything? In the article on Terra Preta, archeologist are finding shards of pottery mixed within the fertile charcoal laden soil. At first they thought it pottery was dumped as a garbage receptacle. However later revelations showed that the pottery helps to direct and hold moisture. Perhaps, they also made their charcoal by covering it with a clay mud that produces a type of pottery residue. In the present day charcoal production facilities in South America they use a pit and not pottery.


Foreign Fields: Friends from abroad have questions about shipping Cattails to Ethanol Books.


Shipping Answer: Estimating a standard postal service shipping box is the best economic deal when shipping to a foreign country. The costs of sending one book or a stack of books is often the same. More to come next month…. Best wishes, Peggy Write Me!

GM Files for Bankruptcy

GM has bowed to the inevitable and is passing through bankruptcy. I want you to think about that. Six months ago, a portfolio top heavy with financial service companies and GM was about as conservative as you could make an investment portfolio. And the supply was large enough to satisfy all comers. Most of this stock was all lodged in managed pension plans and the like because the managers did not dare show that they were accepting excessive risk. If I had held their positions, I would have been very satisfied following suite. I would have slept well at night and perhaps fretted about that small cap flyer in the discretionary part of the portfolio.

We are living through one of the greatest destructions of personal wealth in history and the counting has barely begun. Do you know that you are ruined? That only happened in bad movies on late night television.

As we begin to go forward again, when that becomes possible, a lot of folks are going to be horrified to discover that they are not suffering a modest reduction in hitting power but a catastrophic reduction.

Anyway read this and weep for America.

May 31, 2009, 4:28 p.m. EST

GM to name Al Koch as restructuring officer - WSJ

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!gm/quotes/nls/gm (
GM 0.75, -0.37, -33.04%) will name turnaround executive Al Koch as its new chief restructuring officer as the automaker moves through Ch. 11 reorganization, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. Koch is a managing director at the advisory firm AlixPartners LLP. He will be named to the post when GM files its bankruptcy petition Monday morning at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York's Southern District, according to the report. He will be the highest-ranking outsider in GM's officer ranks and oversee about 60 Alix employees working for the auto maker, the Journal added.

***

And this next essay is on the power of the status quo in America. We all see what is wrong, but rather than rational attempt to produce constructive change we instead must suffer the assemblage of self promoting interests groups who strive to spin the problem into their control and profit. This is very unsatisfactory and even bone headed. Do I need to start on the health system?

Can America be Fixed?


By Prof. John Kozy

URL of this article:
www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13778

Global Research, May 29, 2009

“Washington tends to enforce a foolish consistency. If you are someone of some prominence whose views are known publicly, then everything you have ever said in the past tends to be projected forward and everything you say today is projected backward. Any discrepancy potentially brings charges of flip-flopping or hypocrisy or selling-out or whatever. Certainly, these charges are valid in many cases, but the simple possibility that circumstances have changed or that experience or new evidence has caused one to change one's mind seems never to be seriously entertained. The result is to force people to stick with positions they know are wrong because they less fear being foolishly consistent than being attacked for flip-flopping.” (
Bruce Barlett),

When Americans adopted the notion that acting on principle, standing up and fighting for what one believes in, is virtuous, while changing one's mind, even on sufficient evidence, is unprincipled flip-flopping and unseemly is not known, but it surely has its foundation in the American addiction to ideology which places greater value on belief than on knowledge. This notion's absurdity should be obvious, but apparently it isn't. Acting on erroneous principles leads to disaster, and why anyone should be willing to do that is an enigma. Yet even more sinister consequences follow from this notion. Since no prominent person, especially one holding elective office, wants to be labeled “unprincipled,” people are loath to change their views even when they know those views are wrong. Once they have decided that being “principled” is more important than being right, they have no inclination or desire to question the validity of their views by seeking the truth. The result is that these so-called principles become ossified dogmas, debate degenerates into vituperation, government becomes ineffective, and society disintegrates.
But the adoption of this notion along with the American addiction to ideology does not prevent inconsistency, and Bartlett's comment reveals another trait of what passes for America's intelligentsia—the curious inability to think past the first level of consequences.

What Bartlett misses is that people hold “principled” views on numerous issues. Holding a “principled” view on one issue can conflict with the “principled” views held by the same people on other issues, and if the “principled” people have no inclination or desire to validate any of their views, the inconsistencies never become apparent to them.

Two such contradictory views are held by the American political status quo, especially on the political right, but often by those termed moderate and liberal as well. One is the view that the family is the fundamental unit of society. The other is the ideological belief in the capitalist system.

The United States of America does not have anything that an anthropologist would recognize as a true society. America consists of a mere cluster of people and groups with various and often opposing beliefs who often have little tolerance for the beliefs held by the others. It has been said that Americans do not live together, they merely live side by side. These individuals and groups openly seek to promote their own interests at the expense of the interests of all. Freedoms of all sorts are being restricted and those people who fall outside of the dominant groups are left to their own devices or abandoned entirely. No true society operates this way, and Americans have obviously never understood Mill's On Liberty.

In primitive societies, the family, especially extended, is the individual's support group. When a young mother dies or becomes infirm, when a person becomes ill or incapacitated, when children are orphaned, when people become elderly, the family provides the needed support because it is often not possible for an individual “to operate within his own societal space, assume his responsibilities, and exploit his potential.” [See Steyn below.] Reality is not so benign. But two dogmas of the capitalism practiced in America, what the French call capitalisme sauvage, destroys families—the mobility of labor, and the subsistence wage (or the lowest wage that will buy the labor required).

The insufficient income that results from low wages is a major cause of divorce and when family members are dispersed by having to move to where jobs are, the extended family disintegrates. A year or so ago, a study on divorce rates showed that divorce was highest in those red, conservative states in the Bible belt. Protestant clerics bemoaned this finding, attributing it to their own failure to instill Christian values in their flocks, but they failed to notice that per capita income is also lowest in these same Bible belt states. As the extended family disintegrates, the needed support groups collapse, and the individual who is unable “to operate within his own societal space, assume his responsibilities, and exploit his potential” is abandoned. Abandoning one's children is considered by conservatives to be criminal, but apparently they do not consider a nation that abandons its people to even be wrong.

When the people so abandoned clamor for societal support, conservatives often berate them for their “indolence” and accuse them of wanting to become “wards of the state.” See Mark Steyn

But the concept of a state is an abstraction, and becoming a ward of an abstraction is impossible. States do not provide people with anything. States merely function as means. Governments consist of people who enact and collect the funds needed to fund the execution of laws. The money comes, at least in fiscally responsible nations, from the nations' peoples. When social programs are created to care for those in need, it is not the state that provides the programs, it is the society. It is society that is the village that is needed to raise a child, not the state. People do not become wards out of indolence, they become wards out of necessity. And the economic system is largely to blame. When people lose their jobs in economic downturns, it is not because they are indolent. When people fall ill or are injured and cannot afford medical care, it is not because they are indolent. When the value of their investments falls because of poor decisions made by corporate or even political leaders, it is not because the people are indolent. It is because the economic system has destroyed the family and is itself unreliable and designed to regularly fail. The economic system then compounds the problem by the idiotic dogma that the only groups that corporations are responsible to are their shareholders. [See my piece, Dumb Claims that go Unquestioned


http://www.jkozy.com/Dumb_Claims_that_go_Unquestioned.htm].


What results, of course, is an assemblage of people that resembles what Locke and Rousseau describe as a state of nature, an état sauvage, which civil governments are theoretically created to tame. But capitalism not only makes taming the état sauvage, impossible, it destroys the family and along with it the basis of society itself. So any “principled” conservative who believes both that the family is the fundamental unit of society and also in capitalism holds fundamentally contradictory views even though s/he holds each “principled” view consistently. So the foolish consistency of the so-called “principled” is not consistency at all. And since the American status quo is assumed to be both ideologically addicted and “principled,” what passes for an American society is afflicted with numerous irresolvable contradictions. Sooner or later it mush crash headlong into reality.


The difficulty arises when one asks how one would go about fixing things. True believers and “principled” office holders cannot be influenced by rational discussion, facts, or even the horrific consequences of implementing their erroneous beliefs. If one believes that these beliefs cannot be wrong, when they go wrong it is always because they have been misapplied. If people are poor, it is because they are indolent, if businesses fail, it is because their directors are inept or corrupt, if government policies fail, it is because they are under funded, not enforced, or inefficiently applied. The belief is never questioned; the system is never reformed. It is merely incessantly patched. But contradictions cannot be removed by patching.


So the broken healthcare system can't be rebuilt fundamentally, it can only be patched. Failed foreign policy practices cannot be altered fundamentally, they can only be patched. The political system that allows deep-pocketed lobbyists to corrupt the system cannot be reformed, it can only be patched. And most importantly, the capitalist economic system, capitalisme sauvage, cannot be transformed, it can only be patched. The more things are patched, the more things stay the same. What passes for a society continually unravels, no social problems are ever solved, the people are abandoned for the sake of institutions founded on erroneous beliefs, and eventually the nation collapses.

This is the logical explanation, but there is another nefarious one. Perhaps the claims of ideological purity and consistency on the part of the status quo's elite are mere marketing. Perhaps the members of this elite are committed to no ideology at all. Perhaps all they care about is their own self-interest. Perhaps they will espouse any position at all if they believe it will be profitable. Perhaps they are the proverbial progeny of Cain and the mark they bear is a capital S with a vertical line drawn through its center. Perhaps they are merely scoundrels. Many people, people like Bruce Bartlett, make the unwarranted assumption that the “principled” true believers are well meaning but misled, irrational, ignorant, or foolish. But perhaps Bruce Bartlett and those like him are the ones who are wrong.

There is empirical evidence for this view—all the promises politicians have made to get elected that have never been fulfilled. People who lie regularly to further their own ends are rogues and rogues are not principled people.

So has the United States of America doomed itself by the addiction of its people to ideology and foolish consistency and by developing a political economy managed by rogues? Is it now impossible to fix? Unless the people rise up and demand fundamental change, the answer appears to be, “Yes!” Can the people be expected to do this? Not given the status quo's ownership of the media, because the vast majority lacks even a hint of what is really going on.


John Kozy is a retired professor of philosophy and logic who blogs on social, political, and economic issues. After serving in the U.S. Army during the Korean War, he spent 20 years as a university professor and another 20 years working as a writer. He has published a textbook in formal logic commercially, in academic journals and a small number of commercial magazines, and has written a number of guest editorials for newspapers. His on-line pieces can be found on
http://www.jkozy.com/ and he can be emailed from that site's homepage.