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S. Solomon et al., Science, Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming

Science, published online January 28, 2010; DOI: 10.1126/science.1182488

Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming

Susan Solomon,1 Karen Rosenlof,1 Robert Portmann,1 John Daniel,1 Sean Davis,1,2 Todd Sanford,1,2 and Gian-Kasper Plattner3

1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, U.S.A.
2 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, U.S.A.
3 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.  


Abstract

Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here, we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor represents an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.

Link:  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1182488