Written by fatih al-farahat in , ,


G20 to Phase out fossil Fuel Subsidies


This is one step that I can agree with and that every country can enable as a common action. If all are doing this, there is no lobby argument that stands at all.



Now if we could now do the same thing with agricultural subsidies world wide making it a condition for maintaining the right to trade a given commodity. The subsidy game has been a way to play beggar my neighbor and has merely led to mutual damage unless you think free trade in agricultural goods between Europe and north America is unsustainable.



In fact the developed countries have all subsidized their agriculture to a huge degree an a competition to the bottom. This has meant that we have a form of consumer subsidy going on that is distortive. It has made it difficult for everyone else to break into our markets.



The good news is that developing countries are getting wise to the game and are starting to create working offsets to move their product and their own subsidies of course. In time, it will all sort itself out.



In the meantime, China and India have robust agricultural sectors whose expansion in output is easily keeping up with demand. A famine threatens in India and it is easy to divert global reserves to the Indian market.



Anyway, the simple application of a price guarantee for wind power and geothermal power will swiftly see the carbon based industry replaced though simple replacement as plants cycle to the end of their lives. Even early windmills are now been replaced with better gear.



As I have posted, we are going to see the oil supply drop from 85 million barrels per day to a stable 50 million barrels per day or less over the next decade or so. That is why the explorers are finally tackling the likes of politically volatile West Africa and just about any place with a hope in an attempt to sustain present levels. The shoe really has not dropped yet but it will take very little to expose our vulnerability and force the globe into oil rationing.



G20 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel subsidies



by Staff Writers



Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (AFP) Sept 23, 2009



http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/G20_leaders_agree_to_phase_out_fossil_fuel_subsidies_999.html




Leaders of emerging and developed nations agreed Friday to a US plan to phase out government subsidies for fossil fuel blamed for global warming, a joint statement said.


"We commit to rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption," the leaders said after a two-day Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh.


The leaders asked their energy and finance ministers to "develop implementation strategies and time frames" for the phasing out of the subsidies.


"We call on all nations to adopt policies that will phase out such subsidies worldwide," the statement said.


The leaders however underlined "the importance of providing those in need with essential energy services, including through the use of targeted cash transfers and other appropriate mechanisms."


The US plan was part of efforts to combat climate change, enhance energy security, improve public health and the environment, promote faster economic growth and support more effective targeting of government resources for the poor, officials said.


Key G20 nations China, India, Russia and Brazil reportedly are among the top spenders of fossil fuel subsidies and are unlikely to easily agree to any plans to slash them.


Written by fatih al-farahat in , ,


New Wind Industry Report by Pike



This report is out from Pikes Research but is pricy for the non industry reader. In the event, the summary gives us the important information that growth was fifty per cent over the past year. This year has seen barely a pause. In fact, from my own informants I know that projects were briefly put on hold and then went straight ahead.



As posted earlier, wind is on a tear. Industrial America wants their share and the lending industry wants the product because it is as good as it gets from a lender’s perspective. After all the fuel is free and the hardware is practically bullet proof and can operate for decades past the last payment. The only variable expense is how much to pay the accountants.



It will grow strongly this year and next year and likely straight through 2015.



I would also say that public acceptance is at an all time high. Builders seem to be staying away from any urban development and the attendant noise issues, and farmers who are stakeholders are obviously quiet, just like the oil business. Besides they look better than all those bill boards on the interstates.



Now we need to see the same building boom get rolling on geothermal in Nevada and our energy needs will be well on the way to been fully solved with fuel free systems.



Whatever government may think it is doing, it is clear that the American business community has decided to displace the oil industry and the coal industry just as fast as possible, even if it is possible to squeeze decades more out of the business.



Just remember, replacing oil, gas, and coal is an incredibly profitable business proposition. The only thing likely to compare to it in industrial history would have to be the Second World War. And it is completely financed through the most conventional lending sources. All government needs to do is largely stay out of the way.




Wind Energy Outlook for North America



Wind Power Generation Capacity and Turbine Deployments: Market Analysis and Forecasts



In 2008, United States wind power generation capacity passed the 25 gigawatt mark by adding over 8 gigawatts from the year before, which represented the largest individual gain of any country in the world. This growth rate of 50% exceeded that of the year before, indicating that the market is still relatively young and has room to grow, despite the economic slowdown. The market for wind turbines will continue to grow through 2015 driven by new generation additions as well as replacements of smaller, older turbines with new, larger, more efficient turbines. In 2007, generation capacity from renewable sources made up only 4% of the world’s electricity sources, but 16% of new electricity generation capacity additions were from renewables with wind power making up more than 80% of these gains by renewables.



The year 2009 will be a defining moment for wind power markets around the world. The global economic crisis that began in late 2008 has thrown the industry into confusion, along with most other global industries. Two competing market views exist, and representatives from each camp were interviewed for this report across the wind power value chain, such as components suppliers, turbine OEMs, wind developers, and power providers.




Table of Contents



1. Executive Summary


2. Market Issues


3. Technology Issues


4. Market Forecasts and Demand Drivers


5. Key Industry Players


View full Table of Contents




List of Charts and Figures



· Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, North America: 2006-2015


· New Additions of Wind Capacity, North America: 2007-2015


· Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity, North America: 2007-2015


· Wind Energy Production, North America: 2006-2015


· Average Wind Turbine Price per Kilowatt, North America: 2007-2015


· New Wind Turbines Deployed, North America: 2007-2015


· Total Wind Turbines Deployed, North America: 2007-2015


· Wind Turbine Investments, North America: 2007-2015


· Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2008



View full List of Charts and Figures

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Robert Dickson: New techniques for observing the Arctic Ocean circulation and its freshwater budget

Nuuk Climate Days 2009: Changes of the Greenland Cryosphere Workshop & The Arctic Freshwater Budget International Symposium, Nuuk, Greenland, 25-27 August 2009

Primary author: DICKSON, Robert (CEFAS, Lowestoft), r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk

Abstract ID: O8

New techniques for observing the Arctic Ocean circulation and its freshwater budget

In one way or another, the two-way influences of global climate on the Arctic, and of the Arctic on global climate, center on its ice and freshwater budget. As the Arctic sea-ice declines, climate models anticipate regional effects on the atmospheric circulation (e.g. through changes in albedo and ocean-atmosphere heat exchange); and since the pioneering work of Bryan and Manabe in the 1980s, we have come to expect remote effects also, as a changing freshwater efflux from the Arctic reaches south to affect the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. That said, however, it remains true that climate models are inherently weak in quite a long list of the processes that are important to our understanding of how change takes place in northern seas and how it might affect climate. And the fact that the Arctic-subarctic system is both under-sampled and rapidly-changing is also problematic when establishing freshwater budgets; put simply, the large variability in the supply, storage and transfer of freshwater throughout this system may prevent us from discriminating inconsistency from change in our estimates.

After a brief recap of a representative freshwater budget for the Arctic and of how climate models expect the freshwater delivery to the Arctic to change, this talk concentrates on five areas where our understanding of the freshwater budget and the processes important to it appear to have been materially advanced during recent years, including but not necessarily restricted to the IPY. These include: (1) new ideas on the behaviour of the greatest oceanic freshwater reservoir on Earth (Proshutinsky, Toole); (2) new intricate ideas on ocean-climate feedback processes along the Arctic margin of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas as the land-fast ice thins and breaks free (Shimada); (3) new ice-thickness techniques in support of sea ice prediction (Laxon/Giles,  Wadhams, Gascard); (4) a new and practical approach to monitoring the freshwater flux through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by combining observations with models (Prinsenberg, Peterson); and (5) new direct observations of the freshwater flux passing south through the Fram Strait (de Steur et al., Rabe et al.). Such a diverse set of examples serves to illustrate the broad front over which progress is needed -- and is being made -- in developing our understanding of these processes, their changes, their feedbacks and their likely climatic impacts to the point where they can be of practical use to the development of climate models. Meanwhile, in many cases, we are still in the process of exploration.


Contact for symposium information: Sune Nordentoft Lauritsen, e-mail: snl@space.dtu.dk

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K. Delthloff et al.,The climate system of the Earth from a polar perspective

Nuuk Climate Days 2009: Changes of the Greenland Cryosphere Workshop & The Arctic Freshwater Budget International Symposium, Nuuk, Greenland, 25-27 August 2009


Primary author: DELTHLOFF, Klaus (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI),
Germany), Klaus.Dethloff@awi.de.  Co-authors: RINKE, A. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); HANDORF, D. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); DORN, W. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); BRAND, S. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); MIELKE, M. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); GRAESER, J (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research); HERBER, A. (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)

Abstract ID: F1

The climate system of the Earth from a polar perspective

Balloon and radio sounding data from the North Pole drifting station NP35 for autumn 2007 to spring 2008 have been used to evaluate numerical model outputs (simulations with the regional climate model HIRHAM, ECMWF analyses). HIRHAM in the climate mode has some difficulty to represent the observed complex temperature profile, while the forecast mode shows better agreement. Sensitivity experiments concerning the atmospheric initial state, sea ice thickness and planetary boundary layer parameterization demonstrate improvements in the simulations.

Similar measurements have been carried out during spring 2009 on NP 36 and with the AWI airplane POLAR 5 over the Arctic Ocean. The pilot-project PAM-RCM (Pan-Arctic Measurements and Arctic Regional climate model simulations) provided a unique opportunity to obtain a snapshot of aerosol and cloud distributions and associated meteorological and atmospheric conditions as well as measurements of sea ice thickness in a latitude band between about 70°N and 80°N.

Sensitivity experiments using a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean-ice model of the Arctic has been conducted in order to identify the requirements needed to reproduce observed sea-ice conditions and to address uncertainties in the description of Arctic processes. While more sophisticated schemes for the albedo, the treatment of lateral freezing and melting, and the snow cover have been successfully introduced into the model, the parameterization of clouds is an open issue.

The global influence of Arctic feedbacks connected with sea-ice albedo changes and stratospheric ozone changes have been investigated. The simulations show significant changes over the Arctic and the whole globe due to changes of planetary wave patterns, which trigger the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and influences the sea -ice cover.

The impact of an interactive stratospheric ozone chemistry on the tropospheric circulation has been studied on the basis of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model ECHO-GiSP. The results show a sensitivity of the tropospheric circulation dynamics to the stratospheric chemistry. With enabled interactive stratospheric chemistry the model tends to the negative phase of the AO mode and a more unstable polar vortex..

Contact for symposium information:  Sune Nordentoft Lauritsen, e-mail: snl@space.dtu.dk

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Greenland Ice Sheet’s elevation change in winter and atmospheric circulation

Nuuk Climate Days 2009 -- Changes of the Greenland Cryosphere Workshop & The Arctic Freshwater Budget International Symposium, Nuuk, Greenland, 25-27 August 2009

Primary author: CHEN, Linling (Nansen-Zhu International research center/Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences), lin-ling.chen@nersc.no ; Co-authors: JOHANNESSEN, Ola M. (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center); WANG, Huijun (Nansen-Zhu International research center/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences);  KHVOROSTOVSKY, Kirill (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center)

Abstract ID: F4
 
Greenland Ice Sheet’s elevation change in winter and atmospheric circulation

Data from ERS-1, ERS-2 and Envisat Satellites are analyzed to identify the relationship between winter elevation variations of Greenland ice sheet and sea level pressure during 1993-2007. It is found that the North Pacific oscillation and the North Atlantic oscillation, the two major teleconnection patterns of surface pressure fields in North Hemisphere, both have significant impacts on the Greenland ice sheet winter elevation change by influencing accumulation. In addition, we are evaluating modeled precipitation data over Greenland based on comparison with accumulation data from all available ice core records and meteorological station, in order to better understand how the atmospheric circulation impact the Greenland Ice Sheet’s Elevation.

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V. V. Petrenko et al., Science (2009) 324(5926): 14CH4 measurements in Greenland ice: Investigating last glacial termination CH4 sources

Science (24 April 2009), Vol. 324, No. 5926, pp. 506–508; DOI: 10.1126/science.1168909
 

Reports

14CH4 measurements in Greenland ice: Investigating last glacial termination CH4 sources

Vasilii V. Petrenko,1,*,** Andrew M. Smith,2 Edward J. Brook,3 Dave Lowe,4 Katja Riedel,4 Gordon Brailsford,4 Quan Hua,2 Hinrich Schaefer,4 Niels Reeh,5 Ray F. Weiss,1 David Etheridge,6 Jeffrey P. Severinghaus1

Abstract

The cause of a large increase of atmospheric methane concentration during the Younger Dryas–Preboreal abrupt climatic transition (~11,600 years ago) has been the subject of much debate. The carbon-14 (14C) content of methane (14CH4) should distinguish between wetland and clathrate contributions to this increase. We present measurements of 14CH4 in glacial ice, targeting this transition, performed by using ice samples obtained from an ablation site in west Greenland. Measured 14CH4 values were higher than predicted under any scenario. Sample 14CH4 appears to be elevated by direct cosmogenic 14C production in ice. 14C of CO was measured to better understand this process and correct the sample 14CH4. Corrected results suggest that wetland sources were likely responsible for the majority of the Younger Dryas–Preboreal CH4 rise.


1 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
2 Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Private Mail Box 1, Menai, NSW 2234, Australia.
3 Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
4 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Post Office Box 14901, Kilbirnie, 301 Evans Bay Parade, Wellington, New Zealand.
5 DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Ørsteds Plads, Building 348, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
6 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Private Mail Box 1, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia.

* Present address: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

**Correspondence e-mail: vasilii.petrenko@colorado.edu

Link to abstract:  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/324/5926/506

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H. Schaefer et al., J. Glaciology (2009): Ice stratigraphy at the Pakitsoq ice margin, West Greenland, derived from gas records

Journal of Glaciology (2009), Vol. 55, No. 191, pp. 411-421.

Ice stratigraphy at the Pakitsoq ice margin, West Greenland, derived from gas records

H. Schaefer, V. V. Petrenko, E. J. Brook, J. P. Severinghaus, N. Reeh, J. R. Melton, and L. Mitchell

Technical University of Denmark, National Space Institute, Denmark

Abstract

Horizontal ice-core sites, where ancient ice is exposed at the glacier surface, offer unique opportunities for paleo-studies of trace components requiring large sample volumes. Following previous work at the Pakitsoq ice margin in West Greenland, we use a combination of geochemical parameters measured in the ice matrix (delta O-18(ice)) and air occlusions (delta O-18(atm), delta N-15 of N-2 and methane concentration) to date ice layers from specific climatic intervals. The data presented here expand our understanding of the stratigraphy and three-dimensional structure of ice layers outcropping at Pakitsoq. Sections containing ice from every distinct climatic interval during Termination I, including Last Glacial Maximum, Bolling/Allerod, Younger Dryas and the early Holocene, are identified. In the early Holocene, we find evidence for climatic fluctuations similar to signals found in deep ice cores from Greenland. A second glacial-interglacial transition exposed at the extreme margin of the ice is identified as another outcrop of Termination I (rather than the onset of the Eemian interglacial as postulated in earlier work). Consequently, the main structural feature at Pakitsoq is a large-scale anticline with accordion-type folding in both exposed sequences of the glacial-Holocene transition, leading to multiple layer duplications and age reversals.

Link to abstract:  http://www.space.dtu.dk/Forskning/Publikationer/2009.aspx?lg=showcommon&id=248910